The promises and pitfalls of planning for demographic change
Gregory Stock
Program on Medicine, Technology, and Society, Department of Health Services, UCLA School of Public Health, Box 177220, 31-293 CHS, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1438, USA
As we begin to understand the biology of aging, it will be ever more
tempting to try to plan for the social consequences of the coming
biomedical interventions in this arena. But this will remain a daunting
task, because the larger consequences of the arrival of anti-aging
interventions will greatly depend on the relative character and timing
of the specific procedures that emerge. Three basic classes of
interventions are likely: ones that slow aspects of aging in adults,
ones that reverse aspects of aging in adults, and embryonic
interventions that modify the trajectory of human aging. The
consequences of each will differ significantly not only in the time
required before noticeable demographic shifts begin to manifest in the
human population, but in the rapidity of the social and political
changes the interventions evoke. The societal consequences will arrive
long before the demographic ones, but will hinge upon the technical
details of the interventions themselves -- their complexity,
physiological targets, modes of delivery, costs, arduousness, and of
course, the character and frequency of any side effects.
Key words:
social, political, demography, anti-aging, ethics
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