Obesity, Infectious Diseases, and Forecasts of Human Life Expectancy + The Demographic Impact of Immortality

S.J. Olshansky, D. Ludwig, B.A. Carnes, J. Brody, L. Hayflick, R. Butler School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1603 West Taylor Street, Room 885, Chicago, Illinois 60612, USA



Recent forecasts of human life expectancy at birth made by mathematical demographers anticipate a steady rise in the 21st century to 100 years or more -- an anticipated extension of a historical trend that has lasted for more than 150 years. Such forecasts are based entirely on atheoretical and abiological assumptions while ignoring the biodemographic, biomechanical, biochemical, and stochastic constraints on the duration of life. We suggest that although it may eventually become possible to achieve another quantum leap in human life expectancy through future advances in the biomedical sciences, there are numerous impediments in existence today, not the least of which include observed trends in infectious diseases and obesity that will likely have a significant negative affect on the future course of mortality and life expectancy in low mortality populations. I will also discuss what would occur to the human population from a demographic perspective, if genuine biological immortality is achieved.




Key words: life expectancy, mortality, forecasts, lifespan, immortality

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